The future of mobility – The automotive industry worldwide is facing a profound change connected with major challenges. Mobility scenarios that can be expected in the future and the course that should be set in Austria were identified in a scenario analysis and study.
How the automotive industry will develop in the coming years depends on a variety of influencing factors. Decarbonization, driven by vehicle electrification and emissions regulations as well as autonomous driving, new mobility concepts and the development of demand are just some of the topics that need to be considered in this context. What is certain is that the automotive market in Austria, with a global market share of only 0.43%, is not large enough to be able to determine future automotive trends itself.
Mobility of the Future: Scenario Analysis and Study
Different mobility scenarios that can be expected in the future, how they will affect the automotive industry in Austria, and which location policy decisions should be made were developed in the scenario analysis and study “Staying on the winning track. Building Automotive Cluster of the Future”.
The study was conducted by Council4 GmBH (the think tank of PANTARHEI ADVISORS Unternehmensberatung GmbH, Economica Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Cognion Forschungsverbund and FAS.Research) for the Federal Ministry for Climate Action, Environment, Energy, Mobility, Innovation and Technology (BMVIT) and the Federation of Austrian Industries (IV). It was prepared in cooperation with mobility expert Dr. Hans-Peter Kleebinder, who was responsible for the scenario analysis. Further, PANTARHEI ADVISORS designed and coordinated the study.
The focus of this study was set against the background of determining the effects of electrification on the Austrian automotive industry.
Three elementary specifications build the aim of the study.
- Development of new drive technologies in 2030
- Estimation of economic implications resulting from structural change for the Austrian automotive industry
- Conclusions for Austria’s automotive sector and the automotive industry
Developments until 2030
Based on international comparisons, meta-analyses, desk research and interviews with independent experts, scenarios form the basis of this study. Describing realistic developments up to the year 2030. Furthermore, five different drive technologies (internal combustion engines with petrol/diesel or gas, electric motors with battery or fuel cell/H2 and hybrid systems as a transition technology) create the foundation for these mobility scenarios, which depend on the degree of electrification.
The basis for all calculations is the so-called “base scenario”. Here, the structures from 2018 are updated until 2030 and adjusted for the expected shift in demand.
In the “real scenario”, the most likely scenario for 2030 from the study’s point of view, the authors agree that the prognosticated development is determined by the transformation speed, but is reflected in a moderate scenario. In the following, this means:
- Combustion engine is being pushed back, but remains the pioneer
- Industry has achieved the structural change to electro mobility
- Hydrogen and battery-electric vehicles reach a market share of 28%
- Gas-powered vehicles and hybrids could serve as bridging technologies to help manufacturers meet their CO2 targets
- Hydrogen is close to a breakthrough
The study shows that battery-powered electro mobility also finds its way into the Austrian automotive industry and contributes strongly to the profound transformation. However, the degree of electrification is of relevance here. Extreme electrification can lead to strong losses in employment and value creation and possibly also threaten the existence of small and medium-sized enterprises.
In order to help to determine the pace and intensity of this change, it is necessary to create the appropriate framework conditions. The basic idea can not only be the limitation of negative effects for the automotive industry and Austria, but also the continuation to participate in growth markets. Openness to technology, innovative strength and the appropriate qualification of employees are, under these circumstances, fundamental conditions for a successful change. This way, the Austrian automotive industry can continue to contribute to employment and the creation of value.
In a nutshell, three essential factors will be of strong relevance in the future.
- Global structural change in the direction of electro mobility
- Automotive industry as a key sector
- Participation in the growth market
Interested to learn more? Click here for the mobility study (only available in German).study